Creating Supply Chain Resilience Through Scenario Planning: How a Digital Twin Can Be Used To Enhance Supply Chain Resilience Through Scenario Planning


Joachim Lindquist
ARLA Supply Chain
Henning de Haas
Department of Technology and Business Development, AU


supply chain disruptions, supply chain resilience, digital twin of a supply chain


This book focusses on the concept of supply chain disruptions and how supply chain resilience can contribute to both preparing for and reacting to the event causing disruption. For building a digital twin of a supply chain, a software named Supply Chain Guru has been used. The software is a supply chain design tool which can be used for different kinds of supply chain network optimisation. The book outlines four scenarios: Covid-19 lockdown, Brexit without deal, Conflagration at a dairy and Political regulations on transport. The scenarios all contain a problem that needs to be solved. This problem is considered as the main disruption for the supply chain. Running the scenario in Supply Chain Guru, constraints are added to the AS-IS model. The constraints are identified as implications of the event in the scenarios. By adding the constraints and running the model, Supply Chain Guru identifies suggestions to solve the problems which were described. The solutions within the scenarios are held up against the theory of supply chain resilience, to describe how the scenario planning can be used to enhance supply chain resilience. Finally, the book discuss how scenario planning can be related to supply chain resilience as well as how scenario planning can be used to increase supply chain resilience.


Alcantara P, Riglietti G, Aguada L, 2017. BCI Supply Chain Resilience Report 2017. Available at: [Accessed 15th of September 2020]

Amadeo, K, 2020. Brexit Consequences for the U.K., the EU, and the United States. [Online] Available at: [Accessed 26th of October 2020]

Arla Foods, 2019. Arla Foods amba, Leading through sustainable business performance

Arla Foods, 2020. Om Arla [Online] Available at: [Accessed 25th of August 2020]

Blackstock, T. (2005), Keynote speech, International Association of Food Industry Suppliers, San Francisco, March 11 2005.

Bugert, N., Lasch, R., (2018). “Supply Chain Disruptions Models: A Critical Review.” International, The Global Supply Chain Network, 20 June 2018

Cambridge Dictionary, 2020. Paradox [Online] Available at: [Accessed 29th of September 2020]

Cambridge Dictionary, 2020. Scenario [Online] Available at: [Accessed 18th of September 2020]

Cambridge Dictionary, 2020. Scenario Planning [Online] Available at: [Accessed 18th of September 2020]

Chermack, T.J. (2003). “Studying scenario planning: Theory, research suggestions, and hypothesis”. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, Vol. 72, 2005, p. 59-73

Choi, T.Y., Rogers, D., Vakil, B., (2020). “Coronavirus Is a Wake-Up Call For Supply Chain Management”. Havard Business Review, 27th of March 2020.

Chopra, S., ManMohan, S.S., (2004). ”Managing Risk To Avoid Supply-Chain Breakdown.” Mit Sloan Management Review, 2004.

Christopher, M. (2005). Logistics & Supply Chain Management, 3rd ed., Prentice-Hall, Harlow.

Colotla I., Fæste A., Heidemann A., Winther A., (2016) “Winning the Industry 4.0 race: How ready are Danish manufactures?” Boston Consulting Group, December 2016

Cranfield University (2003). ”Creating Resilient Supply Chains: A Practical Guide”. Centre for Logistics and Supply Chain Management, Cranfield University

Cunha, M., Putnam, L. (2019). ”Paradox theory and the paradox of success”. Strategic Organization, Vol. 17, 2019, p. 95-106

Danmarks Statistik, 2020 Historisk stort fald i BNP. Available at: [Accessed 15th of September 2020]

De Wit, B., 2017. Strategy: An international perspective. 6th ed. 2017. EMEA

Ferdows, K., Lewis, M.A., Machua, J. (2004). “Rapid-Fire Fulfilment.” HBR Spotlight The 21st-century supply chain, November 2004, Havard Business Review.

Gattorna, J. (2006). “Supply Chains Are the Business”. Supply Chain Management Review, Vol. 10. No. 6, p. 42-49

Guarte, J. (2006) “Estimation under Purposive Sampling”. Communications in Statistics - Simulation and Computation, Vol. 35 No. 2, p. 277-284

Hohenstein, N., Feisel, E., Hartman, E., Giunipero, L. (2015). ”Research on the phenomenon of supply chain resilience: A systematic review and paths for further investigation”. International Journal of Physical Distribution & Logistics Management. Vol 45, 2015, p. 90-117

Knemeyer, A. M., Zinn, W., Eroglu, C. (2009). “Proactive planning for catastrophic events in supply chains.” Journal of Operations Management. Vol. 27, 2009, p. 141–153.

Lambert, D. M., Cooper, M. C., Pagh, J. D. (1998). “Supply chain management: implementation issues and research opportunities.” The international journal of logistics management, Vol. 9 No.2, 1-20.

Lambert, D. M., 2008. Supply Chain Management: Processes, Partnerships, Performance. 3rd ed. 2008. Supply Chain Management Institute

Lund, S., Manyika, J., Woetzel J., (2020). ”Risk, resilience, and rebalancing in global value chains”. McKinsey Global Institute, August 2020

Parrott, A., Warshaw, L. (2017). “Industry 4.0 and the digital twin. Manufacturing meets its match”. Deloitte University Press, 12th of May 2017

Peterson, G., Cumming, G., Carpenter, S. (2003). “Scenario Planning: a Tool for Conservation in an Uncertain World”- Conservation Biology, Vol. 17, 2003, p. 358-366

Ponomarov, S.Y., Holcomb, M.C. (2009). “Understanding the concept of supply chain resilience”. International Journal of Logistics Management, Vol. 20, 2009, p. 124-143.

Pålsson, H., Sandberg, E. (2020). “Paradoxes in supply chains: a conceptual framework for packed products”. International Journal of Logistics Management, Vol. 31, 2020, p.423-442

Schoemaker, P.J.H. (1991). “When and How to Use Scenario Planning: A Heuristic Approach with Illustration”. Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 10, 1991, p. 549-564

Schleich, B., Anwer, N., Mathieu, L., Wartzack, S. (2017). “Shaping the digital twin for design and production engineering”. CIRP Annals – Manufacturing Technology, Vol. 66, p. 141-144

Stecke, K.E., Kumar, S., (2009). ”Sources Of Supply Chain Disruptions, Factors That Breed Vulnerability, And Mitigating Strategies.”. Journal of Marketing Channels, Vol. 16, 2009, p. 193-226

Smith K.W., Tracey, P. (2016). “Institutional complexity and paradox theory: Complementarities of competing demands”. Strategic Organization, Vol. 14, 2016, p. 455-466

Swink, M. (2020). “Building Resilient Supply Chains: What Past Experiences Taught Us About Gaining Advantage in the Current Recessions”. White Paper, Association For Supply Chain Management, 2020.

Takeuchi, H., Osono, E., Shimizu, N., Dorton, J.K., 2008. Extreme Toyota – Radical Contradictions That Drive Success at the World’s Best Manufacturer. John Wiley & Sons

Taleb, N., 2010. The Black Swan – The Impact of the Highly Improbable. 2nd ed. 2010. Random House LCC US.

Tao, F., Cheng, J., Qi, Q., Zhang M. (2017) “Digital twin-driven product design, manufacturing and service with big data”. Springer-Verlag, 16th of March 2017.

Uhlemann, T., Lehmann, C., Steinhilper, R. (2017). “The Digital Twin: Realizing the Cyber-Physical Production System for Industry 4.0”. Procedia CIRP, Vol. 61, 2017, P. 335-340

Wucker, M., (2020). “No, the coronavirus pandemic wasn’t an unforeseen problem”. The Washington Post, March 17 2020

Creating Supply Chain Resilience Through Scenario Planning



oktober 19, 2021

Detaljer om denne monografi

ISBN-13 (15)